واکنش دمای خاک طی ماه‌های گرم سال به تغییرات اقلیمی در ایستگاه سینوپتیک کرمانشاه

The aim of the present study is to investigate the trend of changes in the soil temperatures during the summer in the time period of 1962-2023 at the Kermanshah station in response to climate change. Due to the unavailability of soil temperature data in years before 1992, the Coupmodel was used to simulate the soil temperatures during the summer season for the period of 1962-1992. To model calibration, 10 parameters were selected and by generating 10,000 random vectors from the uncertainty domain of these parameters, soil temperature simulation were performed. Considering RMSE, MBE, and coefficient of determination indices, 50 simulations were extracted as top simulations, and the median of these simulations was considered as the final output of the model. The results showed that the model has a suitable accuracy for simulating soil temperatures. By placing the simulated values during the period of 1992-1962 alongside their observational values during the period of 1992-2023, a 62-year time series for each depth was extracted. For each specific year, the mean soil temperature during the summer for different depths was extracted, and using comparing means and Mann-Kendall trend methods, soil temperature response to climate change was examined. The results indicated that using both methods, soil temperatures at all depths have experienced a significant increase in recent periods compared to older periods. The occurrence of such changes, while it can be a signal of climate changes in the study area, can intensify some phenomena related to soil temperature such as droughts and forest fires.