پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم و آیندۀ امنیت آبی در ایران

Forecasting the effect of climate change on water security with an emphasis on climate parameters can be a way to plan and reduce the negative effects of these changes. In the current study, the trend of precipitation data, average temperature, and evapotranspiration based on the output of the two climate models MRI-ESM2 and GFDL-ESM4 using the non-parametric Man-Kendall test for the average of the years 2020-2100 under the two scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 was evaluated so that based on them, water security in selected stations of Iran with emphasis on climate variables will be investigated. The results showed that in most regions of the country, the temperature and evapotranspiration will increase at a significant level of 0.5. Regarding the precipitation variable, a suitable consensus was not obtained from the models in the future; But in most regions of the country, except for Anzali station, which showed a non-significant increase in all conditions, under the investigated scenarios, the precipitation trend will decrease, and this decrease will occur only in the SSP2-4.5 scenario of the GFDL-ESM4 model for Kermanshah, Zahedan stations and Bandar Abbas and under the SSP5-8.5 scenario of the MRI-ESM2 model for Kermanshah is confirmed at a significance level of 0.05. According to the results, based on the increasing trend of temperature and evapotranspiration, and the decreasing trend of precipitation, the occurrence of water stress in most regions of the country will be unavoidable in the average years of 2020-2100.