تحرک تپه‌های ماسه‌بادی و انتشار گرد وغبار تحت سناریوهای مختلف گرمایش زمین در جنوب غرب ایران

The International Panel on Climate Change has reported that global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052. Climate models project robust differences in regional climate characteristics between present-day and global warming of 1.5°C, and between 1.5°C and 2°C. Recently, we developed a new model of sand dune mobility based on the sand drift potential (DP) and the ratio of precipitation to annual potential evapotranspiration (P/PET). This ratio is the aridity index which affected directly plant growth. It was simulated in sand dunes of Khuzestan in the temperature-increasing scenarios (1.5, 3, 4.5, and 6 °C) for 21 weather stations around of Khuzestan Sand Sea. The Khuzestan Sand Sea extends from the Wasit and Maysan provinces in Iraq (22%) to the Ilam (10%) and Khuzestan (68%) provinces in Iran. We assumed that the other parameters did not change significantly. The Iraqi part, Ilam, and the western border of Khuzestan are active due to a high DP. In the central area of sand sea near Ahvaz weather station, the activity decreases due to low DP and high PET. In the southeastern part, the mobility index (MI) increases again because DP reaches up to medium-class wind energy environments. The assumptions of raising the temperature and PET showed that MI will increase by 3,7,10 and 12 % due to different scenarios of global warming in weather stations. Since the predicted changes in PET is generally not drastic, the Khuzestan sand sea is not likely to become active.