بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر رویشگاه گونه‌ مرتعی Stipa hohenackeriana (مطالعه موردی - استان قم )

This research was carried out with the aim of preparing a habitat prediction map of mountain desert species based on the climate prediction model in Qom province. In this study, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to investigate the trend of climatic variables, and the statistical method of logistic regression was used to prepare a potential distribution map of the species of shawl tail (Stipa hohenackeriana ). The results showed that according to this study, Qom province is facing the warming of the air, in general, on the annual scale, upward trends were observed in all stations, and more than 50% of the trends were significant. The results of the logistic regression model showed that the minimum and maximum altitude of the areas where Stipa hohenackeriana is present are 950 and 2850 meters, respectively. If the results of modeling in 2050 in the areas that will be suitable due to climate change show this minimum and maximum height in scenario 4.5, 1200-3000 meters and in scenario 8.5, 3000-2700 meters, respectively. With the increase in temperature due to climate change, the habitat size of this species will decrease and it will move to areas that are higher and therefore have lower temperature. It is predicted that in 2050, in the western and southern regions (high altitudes of Khaljestan and Kokhek regions), we will witness the emergence of areas prone to the occurrence of the species, and these regions will be suitable for the species from the climatic point of view.