اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تولید علوفه مراتع استپی استان اصفهان

Evaluation of rangeland production in temporal and spatial scale is inevitable for grazing management and the implementation of rangeland restoration projects. Statistical models define the relationships between environmental variables and the production of plant species. These models can be used to investigate climate change scenarios and their effect on rangeland production. In this study, bioclimatic and physiographic variables (altitude, slope, aspect) with a resolution of 1 km as independent variables and range production information collected from 5 ecological sites in the steppe rangelands of Isfahan province during 10 statistical years (1998-2007) were used in the form of an artificial neural network model. Then, using the HadCM3/A1B climate change scenario, range production in Isfahan province was predicted in the future. The results showed that the influencing factors on range production were slope, altitude, aspect, average annual temperature and minimum temperature in the coldest month. The amount of range production in current conditions varied from 76.1 to 173 kg/ha. The neural network model predicted forage production for 2030 from 67.8 to 118.9 kg/ha and for 2080 from 62.5 to 95.3 kg/ha. Also, the results showed that in all the studied sites, the amount of range production will be reduced, so that the highest reduction will be in the Khondab site (45%) in 2080. Copping with these extreme changes through comprehensive management methods and compatible with sustainable development is necessary for natural resource managers and pastoralists.