ارزیابی پیامد تغییر اقلیم بر تغییرات دمای حوضه رودخانه جاجرود با‌استفاده از روش MRQNBC

In the current research, the temperature changes of the Jajroud river basin under the influence of climate change have been evaluated. The aim of the research is to model and predict the monthly average temperature changes of Emameh station located on the basin. For this purpose, the corresponding climatic temperature was extracted from the MIROC6 model. Then, the large-scale output of the model was modified and micro-scaled by the MRQNBC method. The future climate period was obtained under two scenarios of common socio-economic path. According to the findings of the research, the average temperature of the basin will increase, and the amount of this increase compared to the base period (2003-2014) for the minimum temperature under the SSP245 and SSP370 scenarios will be 0.45 and 0.58 degrees, respectively. For the maximum temperature under the SSP245 and SSP370 scenarios, it will increase by 1.47 and 1.62 degrees, respectively. The results showed that the minimum and maximum monthly temperature for the period of 2060-2031 had an increasing trend. During the period, the highest and lowest significant trend of temperature increase was observed in summer and winter respectively.