پیش بینی رویشگاه درمنه کوهی (Artemisia aucheri Boiss) در زاگرس مرکزی با استفاده از مدل رگرسیون لوجستیک

Investigating the effect of climate change on the distribution of plant species is essential for the sustainable management and protection of pastures. This study investigated the effect of climate change on the geographical distribution of Artemisia aucheri Boiss in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province located in central Zagros. In this study, logistic regression statistical method was used to prepare the potential distribution map of the selected species. For this purpose, 19 bioclimatic maps and three physiographic variables with a resolution of 4.9 km were prepared under current conditions. In each sampling site, information related to the presence or absence of species and environmental variables was recorded, and the relationship between species distribution and environmental factors was determined using logistic regression, and a potential distribution map of the selected species was produced at the level of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari provinces. Also, in order to investigate the effect of climate change on the geographical distribution of the mentioned species, 19 bioclimatic maps were prepared by MRI-ESM2-0 general circulation model and under two scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 for the year 2050. The results showed that climate change and the consequent increase in temperature will shift the vegetation range of A. aucheri species and move it to higher altitudes. Based on the predictions of the logistic regression model, the suitable habitat level (probability of occurrence above 75%) of A. aucheri species will decrease