پیش‌بینی تأثیرات تغییراقلیم بر تغییرات دما و بارش در مناطق خشک ‏(مطالعه موردی: شهر انار)‏

Climate change is a great and complex challenge that has been affected development of countries. Actions should be ‎derived to mitigate and prohibit the impact of climate change in global and national level. Therefore, climate change ‎impacts should be properly forecasted. The purpose of this research is to forecast the impacts of climate change on ‎monthly mean temperature and precipitation in Anar synoptic station. by Using of HadCM3 model outputs‏ ‏under A2 ‎and B2 scenarios, SDSM downscaling model, the monthly mean temperature‏ ‏and precipitation has been predicted for ‎three period‏ ‏‎(2010-2039), (2040-2069) and (2070-2099). The 11 years data (1986-1996) used for the calibration and ‎the 5 years data (1997-2001) for validation. Until 2099, amount of monthly mean temperature under A2 and B2 ‎emission scenarios will be increased by 2.65 and 2.11 (˙C) and monthly mean precipitation, will be decreased by 4.25 ‎and 6.07(mm), relative to reference period i.e.1986-2001. Therefore, adaptation and mitigation of climate change ‎should be systematically and integrated ‎with the participation of the government, private sector, and non-‎governmental organizations‎