مقایسه نمایه‌های بارش در حال حاضر و آینده تحت تاثیر تغییراقلیم در حوزه آبخیز سفیدرود

In this research, the trend of characteristics of precipitation limit profiles under the influence of climate change in the sixth report using the CMIP6 series model under three optimistic, medium and pessimistic scenarios for the near future (2023-2060) and the far future (2061-2100) are studied. it placed. According to the results, it can be said that due to the fact that the occurrence of extreme meteorological events, including precipitation, is one of the main issues in the field of water resources, agriculture and natural hazards, planning for the future should be done. The results showed that in the base case of 2006-2023 only CDD, CWD and R20mm profiles had significant trends in a few stations. But the results of the trend analysis on the precipitation profiles of the SSP126 scenario in two time periods of the near and far future have shown that for the near future period of 2023-2060, only the SDII, CWD, R20mm, R25mm, R95p and R99p profiles in some stations and for the future period around 2061-2100, none of the profiles had a significant trend in this scenario. Basically, in some stations, the precipitation profiles had a significant trend, that is, the p-value was less than 0.05, which indicates that almost 50% of the precipitation profiles had an increasing trend.