بهبود مدیریت مخزن سد درتامین نیازآب شرب و کشاورزی با رویکرد تغییر اقلیم (مطالعه موردی سد نهرین طبس)

Climate change and increase of temperature is one of the must important problems that it could sadden agriculture and water supplies in any region. As for importance of Climate change on earth and its citizens, especially in arid and semi arid regions, its one of the prevalent scientific subjects in last years and scientist do many studies about it. In this article, we focuses on the management of the Nahrin Dam reservoir located in Tabas city under Changing Climate scenarios in dry and water-scarce areas. The studied methods include the sequential use of the results of climate models, hydrological modeling and reservoir water balance simulation, which are used to predict the amount of water availability in the future. This paper focuses on the development of an innovative reservoir management approach based on rules curves and dynamic assessment of water needs to improve the management of reservoirs that are dependent on the water transmission system. The aforementioned methods have been implemented on the Nahrin dam reservoir and Changing Climate scenarios have been investigated in the long term until the year 2100. The results showed that the proposed approach can ensure 100% urban water supply and increase the reliability of irrigation water supply from 78.2% to 88.1% and the reliability of environmental water supply from 71.5% to 89.3%. It also shows that this management approach is useful, especially in multipurpose reservoirs in watersheds that face water shortage risks.