پیش‌بینی اثرات اجرای سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم و مدیریت آب بر منابع آب و خاک حوضه حبله رود

To carry out this research, Hableroud river basin located in Semnan and Tehran provinces was selected. Reference diagrams were drawn, cause-effect relationships and specific feedbacks were presented, and the conceptual model of comprehensive water and soil resources management in the Hable Rood basin was presented. The storage-flow diagram was extracted from the conceptual model and implemented in Vensim software. The system dynamics model with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and explanation coefficient higher than 0.62 and 0.63 respectively for all variables has acceptable accuracy. Based on climate scenarios and water resource management and cropping patterns, the model was implemented and the outputs of each scenario were compared with the current situation. The scenario of paying 50% of ecosystem service income with an improvement of about 46% in a 30-year period compared to the current situation was recognized as the superior scenario in terms of economic variables. Considering the scenario of agricultural water efficiency management, the parameters of water balance and underground water are improved compared to the current situation by 1.9 and 0.9 billion cubic meters, respectively. In terms of improving the situation of erosion and sedimentation in the planning horizon, with the implementation of the agricultural cultivation model management scenario, compared to the current situation, the wastage is observed to be 6.55 and 4.99 million cubic meters, respectively.