ارزیابی و صحت سنجی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر دو گونه‌ مرتعی خودرو در استان خوزستان

Human actives and natural properties in recent years caused to increasing CO2 among in atmosphere, so these phenomena means to warmth earth and climate change. This research had done to examination effect of climate change on biomass and seed production in two annual rangeland species (Hordeum murinum and Medicago polymorpha) in Shimbar protected area. For this reason from local station, climate data for 2013 to 2015 years was prepared and the future data was developed for two IPCC emission scenarios (B1, 2011-2030, B1, 2080-2099) and (A2, 2011-2030, A2, 2080-2099) based on the global climate model HadCM3 with downscaling of climate to finer spatial resolution using the LARS-WG downscaling model for Shimbar protected area. Prediction of future climate scenarios showed that in the Shimbar area, increased amount of rainfall will occur in the autumn, the season suitable for growing the seedlings of Hordeum murinum and Medicago polymorpha, therefore, increasing biomass and the harvest index is normally expected for these species. For Hordeum murinum, at the B1 scenario for 2090 year, biomass (56.3 kg/ha) and seed production (8.4 kg/ha) were maximum among, almost 33% more than other scenarios and for Medicago polymorpha at the A2 scenario for 2090 year, biomass and seed production were almost 49% more than based year.