تحلیل اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر رخداد سیل در حوزه‌های آبخیز

Climate change and global warming, as one of the biggest challenges of the present era, have had extensive impacts on the hydrological cycle at both global and regional scales. The warming of the atmosphere increases the air's capacity to hold water vapor and accelerates its redistribution in the atmosphere. Therefore, one of the most common impacts of climate change is the increased possibility of river flooding in certain areas. Additionally, global warming leads to changes in other aspects of the water cycle, such as increased evaporation, changes in precipitation patterns and intensity, and impacts on processes involved in surface water storage, including snowmelt, river ice breakup, and melting of natural glaciers. Many of these factors contribute to floods, and changes in these parameters may decrease or increase flooding. However, these processes occur not only on a global scale but also on a regional scale, making the prediction of floods under future climate change conditions challenging. The consequences of warming and its association with the occurrence of floods and droughts in Iran, a dry and semi-arid country with water issues at the forefront of development challenges, are highly significant. For this reason, this study reviews the impacts of climate change on floods. Based on the analyses, climate change can directly and indirectly contribute to reducing vegetation cover, increasing precipitation intensity, increasing sediment transport, decreasing permeability, and increasing runoff coefficient, ultimately leading to floods.