ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر پارامترهای هواشناسی با استفاده از مدل LARS-WG

One of the ways to reduce the effects of climate change is to evaluate its effects on rainfall and temperature in each region. In this research, the data of daily minimum temperature and daily maximum temperature and daily precipitation values of Arak station during the years 1990 to 2014 were prepared as the base period data. In order to scale the output data of CanESM2 and HadGEM2-ES models, LARS-WG model was used. Based on the results of the model under the RCP8.5 scenario, the LARS-WG model shows a decrease in rainfall in all three periods, which is consistent with the assumption that the continuation of global warming will lead to a decrease in rainfall. Based on the results, LARS-WG model has predicted minimum temperature increase in all three scenarios and all three periods. Regarding the maximum annual temperature, the results of the LARS-WG model have increased in all three scenarios and all three periods compared to the base period. Also, the results showed that the most changes in the maximum temperature related to the RCP 8.5 scenario (from 23.12 in the first period to 26.51 degrees Celsius in the third period), the most changes in the minimum temperature related to the RCP 8.5 scenario (from 8.71 in the first period to 60/11 in the third period) and the most precipitation changes are related to the RCP 8.5 scenario.