مدلسازی هیدرولوژیکی حوزه سد علویان و بررسی تغییرات اقلیمی آن در طول قرن بیست و یکم

Assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources in Iran, which already has water tensions, is essential. In this study we assess the effects of prospective climate change until 2100 upon water management within a major reservoirs of Iran, namely Alavian (6x107 m3). First we tune the Poly-Hydro model, properly suited for (daily) simulation of hydrological cycle within high altitude, snow fed catchments as here during control run CR (2000-2010). We then use projected climate scenarios (plus statistical downscaling) from GCM model, EC-Earth, and three emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to mimic evolution of the hydrological cycle in the catchments under future climate until 2100. The result indicated that Poly-Hydro model, when benchmarked against historical data well mimics the hydrological budget of both catchments, including the main processes of evapotranspiration and stream flows. In Alavian precipitation would decrease by -10% on average at half century, and -13% at the end of century, with stream flows -14% yearly, and -18% yearly, respectively. Our results provide on the one hand the evidence of potentially decreasing water availability, and less effective water management in water scarce areas like Northern Iran here during this century.