پیش‌بینی اثر تغییر اقلیم و تاریخ کاشت بر عملکرد گندم آبی در شهر اهواز

In this study, the ten-year (2006-2015) climate data related to Ahvaz city was investigated and the yield of wheat was predicted using the SSM (Simple Simulation Model) for temperature increase (control without the temperature increase), two degrees Celsius increase and four degrees Celsius increase) and different plantings dates (October 15, November 15 and December 15) treatments. The output data were analyzed in the study of wheat performance. The results of predictions showed that there was a significant difference between the temperature and planting date treatments in in terms of phenology, vegetative, remobilization and yield (dry weight) traits. In general, the prediction of the model for both temperature increase treatments shows that the yield of wheat decreases significantly with increasing temperature. It can be inferred that since the temperature is already close to the physiological maximum for the wheat crop, warming immediately affects the yield. The results of the planting date were different for the traits. In the control conditions (without increasing temperature), the planting date of November 15 was more suitable, but with the temperature increase, the suitable planting dates were changed for different traits. The prediction results of the model showed that due to climate change and the possibility of temperature increase in the future, the yield of wheat in the city of Ahvaz would significantly decrease. Of course, the date of different plantings could not clearly compensate for this decrease in yield. These results can be useful for the city of Ahvaz in the future.