پیش‌نگری تغییر اقلیم برای مدیریت جامع حوزه آبخیز اترک میانی

Under the unique climatic, environmental, and socio-economic conditions of the Middle Atrak watershed, it has garnered the attention of national policymakers for strategic studies on watershed management. Climate change projections, as a crucial aspect of watershed planning processes, have been studied using climate prediction models and indicators for vegetation cover and droughts.The results demonstrate a significant increasing trend of 5% in surface temperature across key regions of the Middle Atrak watershed. Analysis of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) reveals that vegetation cover is at its highest during spring and summer, with values ranging between 0.02 and 0.61 across the basin.Projections for drought conditions also indicate a substantial increase in drought severity in the coming years, potentially leading to severe and extreme droughts in the region. Collectively, these changes pose a serious threat to the ecosystems of the Middle Atrak watershed, risking potential consequences in climate migration, social conflicts, unsustainable agriculture, water scarcity, increased evapotranspiration and actual evapotranspiration, and reduced snowpack in high-altitude areas during the cold season. To mitigate these potential risks, it is essential to implement climate-resilient, community-oriented programs designed to enhance the adaptive capacity of local residents and minimize potential damages.