اثر تغییر اقلیم بر پتانسیل رویشگاهی گونهTrin. & Rup. Stipa arabica در استان کردستان بر پایه مدل پیش‌بینی اقلیم

The present study was conducted with the aim of preparing a prediction map of the potential habitats of Stipa arabica based on the climate prediction model in Kurdistan province. In this study, using 7 synoptic stations inside and nearby areas, a database including night temperature, daily temperature, and average temperature was created and 19 climate parameters were calculated. The presence and absence points of S. arabica species were determined using the updated maps. The results of the logistic regression model showed that the probability of habitat presence of 75-100% for S. arabica species is currently almost 100% of the province. If for 2050, it decreased to 25% for the RCP4.5 scenario and 68% for the RCP8.5 scenario. According to the results of this research, large changes in the distribution of this species are expected to occur along with climate changes. These changes can limit the suitable climatic conditions for the life of this important species in the pasture habitats of Kurdistan province. Therefore, the minimum possible work to improve the species, control the destruction of S. arabica species through livestock grazing management, prevent the change of land use and carry out actions such as collecting seeds and storing them in the gene bank of natural resources, introducing superior and drought-tolerant ecotypes with traits A better structure and performance and the preparation of a base based on them and... is one of the basic requirements for its protection outside the habitat with a close approach to nature.