اثر تغییر اقلیم بر پتاسیل رویشگاهی گونهBoiss Bromus tomentellus در استان کردستان بر پایه مدل پیش‌بینی اقلیم

The present study was conducted with the aim of preparing a prediction map of potential habitats of Bromus tomentellus species based on climate prediction model in Kurdistan province. In this study, using 7 synoptic stations inside and nearby areas, a database including night temperature, daily temperature, and average temperature was created and 19 climate parameters were calculated. Then, three physiographic variables, including slope, direction and height, were prepared using a digital height model with an accuracy of 30 meters. Also, the points of presence and absence of B. tomentellus species were determined using the updated maps. The results of the logistic regression model showed that the probability of habitat presence of 75-100% for B. tomentellus species is currently almost 100% of the province. If it is reduced by 37% for the RCP4.5 scenario and 13% for the RCP8.5 scenario of the province for the year 2050. In general, the results of this research showed that species distribution models are useful and cost-effective tools for the use of natural resource managers and increase their awareness of the effects of climate change on species. The maps obtained from the models show the areas sensitive to climate change and the possible refuges of the selected species in order to be used in the protection and grazing plans of these areas. These strategies should be used to protect these areas against threats and to improve the resistance of selected species to climate change to ensure the presence of these species in the future.