ارزیابی دقت داده‌های مدل‌های CMIP6 در مقابل داده‌های مشاهده‌ای در ایران

This research aims to evaluate the accuracy of the BCC-CSM2 model data from the CMIP6 model set. The data used includes average minimum and maximum daily temperature and daily precipitation data from the BCC-CSM2-MR model and data from the synoptic station from 1988 to 2014. To evaluate the performance of model data in comparison with the observed data at the synoptic stations we have used R, R2, RMSE, EF, IA and slope indicators. The evaluation results of the daily precipitation and temperature data of the BCC-CSM2 model compared to the observed data at the synoptic stations showed that although the outputs of the BCC-CSM2 model provide a reliable estimate of the daily temperature of most stations in the country, comparing the predicted daily precipitation of these models with the station’s daily precipitation showed that these models do not have a suitable performance for estimating the daily precipitation of the stations. The statistical comparison showed that the correlation between the minimum temperature of the model and the station on a daily scale is more than 0.75, and in the best performance in the southern regions of Iran, it reaches more than 0.90. The correlation between the maximum temperature values of the station and the model showed that the correlation value in the western half of Iran is greater than 0.9, in the central and eastern parts between 0.85 to 0.9, and in the northern and northeastern marginal areas and the coastal areas of the Oman Sea, it is less than 0.8.