بررسی عدم قطعیت مدل‌های جفت شده فاز ششم در پیش‌بینی دمای کمینه و بیشینه شهر شیراز

In order to visualize climate changes in future periods, coupled three-dimensional models of atmosphere-ocean general circulation are the most reliable tools. On the other hand, the uncertainties caused by the selection of GCM models and emission scenarios are important in the results; Therefore, in this research, the uncertainty of three ACCESS-ESM1-5, CNRM-CM6-1 and MRI-ESM2-0 models was investigated using the LARS-WG statistical model and three scenarios SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 in the downscale of minimum temperature and Most of the synoptic stations of Shiraz have been discussed. In order to downscale the temperature parameters, the daily information of the synoptic station of Shiraz city from 1990 to 2014 has been used. The LARS-WG statistical model is used as a downscale model and the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method is used to check the uncertainty of the model. After validating the model, a forecast was made for the near future period (2021-2040) and compared to the base period (2014-1990). The results of all three scenarios SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 show an increase in the minimum and maximum temperature of Shiraz synoptic station compared to the base period in all months. Also, as we move from the optimistic scenario of SSP126 to the pessimistic scenario of SSP585, the thickness of the uncertainty bandwidth has increased. ACCESS-ESM1-5 and MRI-ESM2-0 models respectively have less uncertainty in estimating the minimum and maximum temperature of Shiraz synoptic station.