ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر رویشگاه گونه‌ Artemisia aucheri در استان اصفهان بر پایه مدل پیش‌بینی اقلیم

This research 19 bioclimatic maps and three physiographic variables were prepared with a resolution of 4.9 km under current conditions. In each sampling site, information related to the presence and absence of species and environmental variables was recorded, and the relationship between species distribution and environmental factors was determined using logistic regression, and a potential distribution map of selected species in Isfahan province was produced. The results of the logistic regression model showed that according to the predictions of this Artemisia aucheri model, 1968900 hectares, equivalent to 18.54% of the province, have a probability of occurrence of 75-100% for the presence of these species. The evaluation of the regression model using the Kappa coefficient for Artemisia aucheri species was equal to 79, which is classified as one of the models with good accuracy according to the classification of Koch and Smith. In order to investigate the effect of climate change on the geographical distribution of the mentioned species, 19 bioclimatic maps were prepared by MRI-ESM2-0 circulation model under two scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 for the year 2050. The results of the species distribution prediction with two scenarios showed that the current conditions are almost similar to the 4.5 scenario, but in the 5.8 scenario, the size of the areas has been reduced, and in both models, the probability of occurrence of the floor has decreased by 75-100% in The year is 2050.